Thursday, November 17, 2011

Email Chain of the Week: Ben and Luke Breakdown the "1 and Done" Rule in the NBA



So today we are bringing you an email chain from myself, Luke (who has been a guest contributor), and Derrick (though he doesn't say much).  What started as a conversation about the Michigan State and Duke game from Tuesday night, turned into a debate on the NBA's "One and Done" rule.  Interesting points where made and all and in all it was a good debate.  This is just straight from the chain, so there will be some spelling and grammar errors...sowie! Enjoy!

So Luke we texted back and forth a bit last night about the game.
D, did you get to watch it at all?  I'd like another non Duke fan's point of view.
Thanks,
Ben





Weird dynamic to the game.  Obviously a huge milestone involved which can effect focus, but Mich st had no business getting that close.
Would have liked to see more of Rivers. 
Luke



Agree 100%.
I think Austin got a bit of a "welcome to elite D-1 college basketball" moment last night.  He got frustrated when he was able to get to the basket but not finish with solid contact, and that contact he thought should've been a foul.  Then on defense that frustration led to some dumb fouls, so he didn't play much in the second half due to foul trouble.
I think this will be a good learning moment for him, after this November run of tough teams he will come out the other side a tested player...it will be interesting to see if he is elite then or just good.
Thanks,
Ben



Does he have elite talent?
Luke


I think so.
He can get to the basket any time he wants.  Even last night he could blow by his guy whenever.  He hasn't mixed in his floater much yet, which he is known for coming out of high school.  He has been trying to get all the way to the basket and has struggled finishing with contact, mainly in the Mich St game.  His shot isn't elite, it is streaky.  I am not sure Duke can change his mechanics at this point so I am not sure he will ever be that great of a shooter.
Personally I wouldn't mind if he took a Robin role to Seth Curry's Batman this year and then came back for his sophomore campaign after a summer of working on his jumper.  I think he needs to work on it to be effective in the NBA.  Problem is I don't know if Seth has Batman in him, nor does anyone else on Duke's roster.  So that leaves Austin, who is the only one that probably does have a Batman personality to slowly take that role as the season progresses even if he really isn't quite ready for that this year. 
It was one bad game, he has played well in the first two.  I think like I said, after November is over we will know a lot more about what kind of player he will be.
Thanks,
Ben


Sidebar – it’s at least SOME good news for us wolves fans:  if and when this lockout ends, there will almost certainly be even tighter restrictions on draft age - meaning only sophomores who are 20 can enter the draft.
So Barnes, Sullinger PJ3 could come out this coming draft, but all these sweet freshman could not.  so the pickings might not be so great for the Clippers with our pick in 2012, and considering how short the season will be this year, if there is any at all, we will probably struggle next year too because we won’t get to grow together, and then we will have our own pick (hopefully high) and have a shot at rivers or gilchrist etc…
That rule should make college ball in general a lot better.  Mandatory 2 and done players will be fun to watch.
Luke



Is that really being discussed?
I hope it does happen.  It hurts Kentucky personally.  Seems like kids that want to be one and done go there, if you have to go 2 years I think that opens up players going to other programs....or Kentucky gets really really good....ish...i hope not I hate Calipari so much.
Is it just me or is Barnes really not that impressive?  I am not sure if it is the UNC system or what, he is a good to great college basketball player, but I just don't see the elite athleticism or shooting or mentality on the court or really anything that makes me think he will be amazing at the NBA level.  Maybe I am wrong though.
Thanks,
Ben



I’ve heard lots of rumblings of it.  but who knows.  Agree that it could throw a kink in coach cal’s system.
Haven’t seen much of harry this year.  I want him to be good for some reason, but the glimpses I’ve seen have not been impressive at all.  Oh well, not everyone pans out.  I never thought he would be amazing at the nba level, but right now, he looks like he will be Marvin Williams impact at best.  A nice, versatile 6th man.
Luke



Oof...Marvin Williams comparison from a Barnes fan...that stings.
I think his ceiling is Joe Johnson, his basement is McCants...he'll probably be somewhere in the middle.
I think he lacks the aggressiveness and mindset to be a takeover player in the way his talent should allow him to be.
I'd love it if that Sophomore system was implemented...it is a win win for both the NBA and NCAA, but a huge loss for the John Walls, Kyrie Irvings, Derrick Roses, Durants, Kobes, Lebrons of the future.
I love the idea of Duke getting great guys for 2 years, but I actually hate the fact that the rules are there, if the kid thinks he is talented enough to go pro he should be able to go pro.
Thanks,
Ben



No way Harry is the scorer Johnson is.  I see him as more of an all around type.  Especially because he doesn’t have elite athleticism to get shots easily or a gunner mentality to be a volume scorer.  I wish he was.
I don’t know that I agree with this.  I see it as the NBA is a private organization.  Playing is a privilege not a right.  They set the parameters for their potential employees in the CBA.  If you need to be a certain age to get in because the NBA doesn’t want to have to overpay for teens to cut their teeth for a couple years then bolt for a big market, I don’t blame them.  What the player (potential employee) wants/thinks doesn’t really matter to me.  They aren’t entitled to anything.
Now some bad team gets to dodge picking Barnes #1 out of highschool, and he will go around 6ish as a 20 year old.  The bad teams will get to pick more proven commodities.
Luke



Yeah, I agree that for the NBA it makes sense.
It is dumb though, because the NBA is protecting itself from itself.  Nobody says just cause a high schooler puts his name in the draft they have to draft him.  It is the organization's fault if they don't do their homework and pick a kid clearly not ready to play in the league too high.  I guess it is a libertarian point of view on it, let the free market figure it out, if only crappy kids are coming out of high school and enough teams waste picks on them eventually they will stop picking them.  Kind of like what we've seen lately with a bit of a downturn on taking risky Euro players too high after some haven't panned out. 

Then in turn, if high school kids aren't getting picked they will then adjust and stop entering the draft and start either going to college or going overseas to improve and mature.  I think a sophomore rule would help to maybe avoid the "fake" college players that the 1 and done rule has created.  Kids really only have to go to school 1 semester if they are a one and done and truly aren't a student in the spring if they don't want to be.  The 2 and done would probably force kids like that to go overseas as they have no interest in the school portion of the college game, which would probably be a good thing.

The libertarian part of me hates the rule I think it should be able to play itself out with supply and demand but the college and nba fan in me likes it, especially the 2 and done.

Thanks,
Ben



So much of player development is guess work.  Why not only accept a more aged product?  There will always be teams that stretch for a highschool player and miss, removing the option does protect those teams.  It creates a far better, more predictable feeder system.  If it’s a free for all, then the teams with the best management will really have the best results because they will stay away from busts.  Really, that is a fair way to do view it too.
I think that 2 years out of highschool / 20 is the perfect age.  Then let HS get drafted in the second round where contracts aren’t guaranteed.  Just like the product.  Is the more fair market?

Luke


That is kind of making it even less fair market by trying to make it more free market by more regulation and rules...lol.
It is just like my world view.  I don't think people should be protected against stupid, uneducated decisions.  You f-up...guess what?  There are consequences.  Sh** happens.
Let the teams that don't do their homework get locked into their idiotic decisions.  Let the teams like the Spurs, do it the right way every time.  Eventually everyone will learn from the Spurs and stop drafting NDudi Ebi.
Now obviously even with a ton of research busts will happen.  Thiago Splitter being an example of the Spurs swinging and missing.
But look at the current top stars in the NBA...Kobe and Lebron...both HS products...they should be allowed in if they are legit as much as I hate it for Duke and the TPups cause I know the Pups are stupid and would continue to pick Ebi.
I get your point of view, and outside of my view of it being kind of a stupid rule, I'd love the sophomore rule as a fan and in the end the NBA really answers to fans, not players, so that is why they will try for that.  If a future Kobe or Lebron blows his knee out at Kentucky in a game against Fordham when he should be in the NBA with his talent and never makes the impact he should have, it really doesn't affect the NBA at all so what do they care?
Thanks,
Ben



Makes sense.  Would you rather have it 16 so Lebron could come out early?  there has to be a line somewhere.  And really, I don’t see why 20 is all that different than 18.  I’m sure there are some NBA anarchists who want you to be able to draft that Rosemount 8th grader right now.  but someone has to be making rules for stuff somewhere or it just doesn’t work. 
Luke



That would be living by the rule of, if there isn't a rule then chaos ensues. 

Why would you as an NBA team draft and pay an 8th grader to be on your team?  The only way that happens is if the NBA begins to have a larger farm league system like baseball, expanding the NBDL.  Where in you can draft a kid and then send him there to pay him less and allow him to develop but be your property as an investment in his potential.  Otherwise you wouldn't draft a 14 year old because a rookie contract would limit him being your property up to the point where he is actually ready to contribute.  If somehow there was a 14 year old that was able to play in the league, which there never will be, why shouldn't he be able to play?  If I am a 14 year old that can help UnitedHealth Group with my talent make a ton of money for them, guess what, they'd hire me.  Now the only issue there is there are child labor laws that kick in at a certain age I am not completely educated on.

Thanks,

Ben



What about a 17 HS junior?

Sent from Luke's iPhone



I don't care...if he can play in the league he can play in the league.

Should there be an maximum age limit?   To prevent teams from investing in players like Favre that think they can play longer than they actually can?  Say 45?  50?

Thanks,

Ben


No. Because it's not in the best interest of the league. If the whole NBA gets together and says, everyone sick of draft busts? Yep. Ok, then let's only let in 20 year olds. 

I have no problem with that. They are their own organization and can do what they want. I really don't care what an 18 year old thinks they are entitled to.

Sent from Luke's iPhone








Yeah but the league should just end the conversation at "Yep".  No need for the rule then, if you are sick of it, don't draft em.  Why regulate it so much to the point where you are missing out on 2 years in which Lebron could be making the league TONS of money?  The amount of money that the Lebrons and Kobes made for the league in those first two years of their careers far outweigh the amount of money they lose on a 2 mil a year rookie contract bust...I'd assume, that is purely speculation but c'mon those type of players make tons of cash and only first rounders get 2 years guaranteed money.

Thanks,

Ben


I guess that's the difference. I don't feel like 2 years is that much. The owners that have the lottery picks each and every year must have finally gotten sick of the guess work and they are now getting their way (rumors indicate). That's something they want out of this cba, and a cba is a lot of give and take. That's one thing they want. 

I would want the same if I were an NBA owner. That's who's arguing for this change. I see your point, I see their point.

Sent from Luke's iPhone 


yeah i get their point...and like I said part of me is for it.

It's funny that the owners are trying to protect themselves from themselves.

It's like the seatbelt law in Minnesota...is it a good idea to wear your seat belt...yes...but is it your choice not to and the only person you'd hurt by not wearing it yourself?  yes.

Thanks,

Ben



It is good irony.  People are flawed creatures.  Sometimes we need protecting from ourselves.  In the case of the NBA, these are highly paid scouts, managers who are the best in the world at what they do.  Still they struggle with picking the wrong player.  I don’t blame them for wanting that age requirement.  Like you said, even the spurs strike out sometimes.  But I bet they do struggle with the money part of it big time.  It’s like gambling.  What if Gerald Green is the next Dr J?  We’d be RICH!!!!  Guess what, he’s not… F.  back to the drawing board… it would be so tempting to not take that high risk high reward guy, especially for the small market teams.  You’re exactly right, they’re finally saying they want to be protected from making those tough decisions the wrong way.

Luke



Yeah, it is stupid to me though, you are just as likely to pick a bust after the kid goes to college for a year or two.

Examples:

Greg Oden
Michael Beasley
Adam Morrison
Marvin Williams
Marcus Fizer

And more top 10 college busts. 

There is no protection against busts high school or college.

Personally I think the best option for the NBA would be to expand and make it easier to use the NBDL so that there isn't the shame in being sent there that there seems to be today.  Open the High School drafting again and for the Lebrons they come right up, for the Jonathan Benders they go to the DL for a year or two prior to starting their rookie salary/contract, much like MLB.


Thanks,

Ben



Would work well.  I would guess they don’t make enough money to run the DL like a full minor leagues.  I don’t have the data, but would guess that college sophs are historically more likely to pan out than HSers.  But there are no guarantees.


Luke


Probably true and that idea would kill college basketball.

I hated McRoberts at Duke too, he just allowed Singler to come into his own by leaving so I am thankful he bolted.

I was really pissed when Will Avery left, he was a stud. 

Thanks,

Ben


Was mcroberts better than the plumlees?

Luke




Interesting question without an easy statistical answer.
Statistically yes he was.
I'd argue that Mason is a better talent and has a good chance in the NBA to be a better player.  McRoberts sophomore year in which he had his best Duke season was Duke's worst team in the past decade.
While Mason has been on one title winning team and a title contender preseason #1 last year.  At this point Mason looks like he will put up comparable numbers to McRoberts sophomore campaign on still a more talented team.  So I'd say McRoberts was better than Miles, but no not better than Mason.
Also a bit different type of players. 
Thanks,
Ben
That is where the conversation wrapped up.  What are you thoughts on the "One and Done" rule?  Was Josh McRoberts a better Dukie than the Plumlees?

No comments :

Post a Comment