Monday, December 5, 2011

NBA Free Agency - 10 Players: Where They Will/Should Go

Where will the ball bounce in the shortened free agency period?

NBA free agency is heating up as the stupid lockout is finally pretty much over.  The help for small market teams doesn't really come for two more years, when the stiffer luxury tax penalties kick in.  So that gives the big spending teams an opportunity to still overspend for another two years to chase a title.  Which sucks for the Minnesota Timberwolf leaning STOB Crew but that is life and quite frankly we are used to losing and not getting big time free agents so we'll be fine.  Today I will look at 10 free agents this year, some Unrestricted others Restricted and I will take an..."educated" guess as to where they will go and where I think they should go.


Nene
Age: 29
Position: C
Stats from 2010/11 - 14.5 ppg, 61.5 fg%, 7.6 rpg, 1.0 bpg
Unrestricted

Will Go - Denver Nuggets

Nuggets have the cap room and the ability to pay him more than any other team, with that Nene will jump at that opportunity.  Add to that the fact the Nuggets are coming off a great season, but have many players overseas stuck in China, they will need to keep an asset like Nene. 

Should Go - LA Clippers

The Clips should go hard after Nene, they probably won't though cause their owner is horrible and Nene's price tag will keep him away.  Pairing a legit center like Nene with Blake Griffin would be an inside combo that is hard to match in the NBA.




Marc Gasol
Age: 26
Position: C
Stats from 2010/11 - 11.7 ppg, 52.7 FG%, 7.0 rpg, 1.7 bpg
Restricted

Will Go - Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizz will match any offers outside of a Max offer for the playoff phenom Marc Gasol.  Gasol had nice numbers in the regular season but really played much better (15 ppg, 11 rpg) during the Grizzlies playoff run.  He isn't in my mind a max offer player, but NBA free agency leads to craziness and teams are always desperate for competent big men which Gasol definitely is.

Should Go - Minnesota Timberwolves

Who me? Biased? Honestly I am, no doubt.  But the Wolves have some cap room already and more they could create if needed and after making a hard run for Rudy Gay last year they may go even harder after Marc Gasol this off season to spite the Grizzlies.  Yes I think it is possible Kahn GM's with spite in mind. Yet, it would also put a legit center next to Kevin Love (Sorry Darko) and bring another piece of Spain close to Ricky Rubio.




DeAndre Jordan
Age: 23
Position: F-C
Stats from 2010/11 - 7.1 ppg, 68.6 FG%, 7.2 rpg, 1.8 bpg
Restricted


Will Go - LA Clippers

Clips have the ability to match any offer on DeAndre and his repore with Blake Griffin was really taking off last year.  As long as some big spending teams don't miss out on the other big men on the market, Jordan shouldn't be quite as expensive either which will be perfect for Donald Sterling.

Should Go - LA Clippers

DeAndre is in a great situation in LA, he can just play off of Blake Griffin and really that role fits his talents.  As long as he is ok taking a back seat to Griffin, which it looked like he was last year, he should really flourish and be a double double guy for the life of this contract.




Jamal Crawford
Age: 31
Position: G
Stats from 2010/11 - 14.2 ppg, 42.1 FG%, 34.1 3PT%, 3.2 apg
Unrestricted


Will Go - Chicago Bulls

Bulls need some scoring and shooting to take some pressure off of D Rose.  Enter a guy never afraid of scoring, in Jamal Crawford.  Really for the Bulls it's Crawford or Jason Richardson.  Both fit nicely.

Should Go - Minnesota Timberwolves

Crawford has been coming off the bench for the Hawks.  The Timberwolves would give him the opportunity to start and get a lot of shots.  The Wolves are in need of a SG and again...have money to spend.  It all depends on if Crawford has interest in a rebuilding team at the age of 31.




Shane Battier
Age: 33
Position: SF
Stats from 2010/11 - 7.6 ppg, 45 FG%, 38.2 3PT%, 4.5 rpg, 2.3 spg
Unrestricted


Will Go - Miami Heat

I love Shane Battier and I hate that I will soon hate him because he goes to the Heat to get himself a ring.  But I can't blame him.  He is a perfect fit for the Heat with his defense, unselfishness and shooting ability. 

Should Go - Miami Heat

It just makes sense...even though it makes me sick.




Arron Afflalo
Age: 25
Position: SG
Stats from 2010/11 - 12.6 ppg, 49.8 FG%, 42.3 3PT%, 84.7 FT%, 2.4 apg
Restricted


Will Go - Denver Nuggets

Being that Afflalo is restricted and the Nuggets have Afflalo as priority #1, he will be resigned even if he is a bit overpaid. 

Should Go - Minnesota Timberwolves

See a trend?  I want the Wolves to be aggressive, to me, Afflalo should maybe be their priority #1 as well.  Defensive minded player but has a nicely developing offensive game.  He is young and has the UCLA connection with Kevin Love. 




Samuel Dalembert
Age: 30
Position: C
Stats from 2010/11 - 8.1 ppg, 47.3 FG%, 8.2 rpg, 1.5 bpg
Unrestricted


Will Go - Boston Celtics

After losing Kendrick Perkins the Celts weren't the same last year with Nenad Krstic at center.  Dalembert is a great defensive player and can grab boards, though he isn't going to be the locker room guy that Perk was, he is much more gritty than Krstic.  Also, the Celtics have a way of changing your old ways and making you play their type of basketball, and I'd assume Dalembert would fall in line.

Should Go - Sacramento Kings

His personality probably fits better with the Kings, they have a lot of overconfident players with Cousins and Tyreke Evans.  It may not be a winning combination but for him he will atleast play a bigger role, which he will like.




JJ Barea
Age: 27
Position: PG
Stats from 2010/11 - 9.5 PPG, 43.9 FG%, 34.9 3PT%, 3.9 apg
Unrestricted


Will Go - NY Knicks

Knicks are going to overpay for a guy they probably shouldn't and Barea may just be that guy.  After a thrilling playoff run Barea is ready to cash in, just like Marc Gasol.  To the highest bidder he will go, and I don't think Cuban will have/want to spend enough money for a back up PG after re-signing their #1 priority Tyson Chandler.

Should Go - Dallas Mavericks

He is in the right situation in Dallas for his skill set.  But he will run for the money and probably be shown there to be just what he is, and energy player that can carry you at times off the bench but not a consistent starter.  The grass isn't always greener on the other side but for Barea the cash will be and he will probably jump at that.




Jason Richardson
Age: 30
Position: G-F
Stats from 2010/11 - 15.6 ppg, 44.7 FG%, 39.5 3PT%, 4.1 rpg
Unrestricted


Will Go - Orlando Magic

The Magic will try hard to keep Richardson and he will accept as he is in a good situation with Dwight Howard drawing the defense leaving him to shoot open jumpers. 

Should Go - Chicago Bulls

I think Richardson should jump off the sinking ship that is soon to be the Magic after Dwight Howard is either traded or just walks in free agency.  Jump and land on Derrick Rose's back.  The Bulls need a SG/scorer/shooter and Richardson fits all those categories. 




Glen Davis
Age: 25
Position: F-C
Stats from 2010/11 - 11.7 ppg, 44.8 FG%, 5.4 rpg
Unrestricted


Will Go - Orlando Magic

Magic are going to be trying to do as much as they can to please Dwight Howard and getting him a partner down low at PF in Davis may help (doubt it...Howard is gone).  Davis is a nice pairing with Howard with the ability to shoot the ball from the midrange and not having to camp out in Howard's space in the post.

Should Go - New Jersey Nets

Nets are likely not going to get Kris Kardashi...Humphries back and with that bringing in Davis is a nice pick up.  Also Davis has a chance to spread his wings a bit and play a bigger role on the Nets than he has with the Celtics.





There are my choices.  What do you think?  Let me know in the comments section and I'll tell you why you are wrong!


-Ben





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